PETE: After having beaten Patrick Mahomes badly, can Iowa State double-down on Miami’s Cam Ward?

Let’s go back to 2016. Matt Campbell’s second-to-last game of the season and 11th of what would become his storied Iowa State football coaching reign.

Two wins over the first 10 games. Just one Big 12 success – against the pitifulness that was Kansas was back then.

At home on Nov. 19 against Texas Tech – and a veteran quarterback named Patrick Mahomes, who would go on to become the 10th pick of the following NFL Draft.

Offensive mastermind Kliff Kingsbury, a disciple of the Air Raid offense, was the Red Raiders’ coach. His team was a 2-point favorite.

Flip forward just more than 100 Campbell-coached games:

Opponent: 13th-ranked Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

Opponent QB:Cam Ward.

Draft prediction: Top Ten pick.

No one’s proclaiming Ward as the best quarterback Iowa State has faced during Campbell’s run toward becoming the Cyclones’ career coaching leader. That’d be tough, especially considering Mahomes’ spectacular Kansas City Chiefs career.

Where am I headed with this?

Iowa State beat Mahomes and Texas Tech 66-10 in that 2016 game, so if something like that happens again on Dec. 28, remember that quarterback hype sometimes is just that – and let’s also remember, Ward is facing the best pass defense against whom he’s played this season.

Of course, Miami is good. But as we’ve seen with Campbell-coached teams, stuff can happen – especially when some people say there’s no chance.

We saw Mahomes fail on that day in 2016, in still what was the worst defeat of his great career. We saw the Cyclones win at third-ranked Oklahoma – with third-team quarterback, and another quarterback impressing us from the linebacker position.

We’ve seen a walk-on kicker from Dubuque, beat Iowa with just the second field goal of his college career – with 6 seconds to play at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City.

We’ve seen it all, during this remarkable run by Campbell, his staff and the players they recruit. That’s why I’d not exactly bet the ranch against something similar against Miami and Ward.

“I remember a couple years ago, we were 4-8, and one of the TV announcers said, 'man, do you think you can survive?' I said, 'I don't know, I'll be really honest with you,” Campbell recalled recently. “But I know I'm not flinching.”

He’s survived, with a lot of help from a defense that’s usually one of the nation’s best. They’ve survived the most injury-riddled team of their Iowa State lives.

Is beating a team like Miami, which like the Cyclones, just missed making the College Football Playoffs, beyond the realm of reasoned belief?

Given what fans have seen during many of the previous 114 Iowa State games Campbell has coached, I’m not so sure anything is impossible.

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What’s the Iowa Everywhere crew think will happen in bowl games involving Cy and Hawk? Here’s what they’re saying:

No. 18 IOWA STATE vs. No. 13 MIAMI (Dec. 28)

(Pop-Tarts Bowl, 2:30 p.m., Orlando, ABC-TV)

Randy Peterson:I learned in Week Three never to doubt a Matt Campbell-coached team during what became a record-setting 2024. I also know that Iowa State’s recent bowl record is just 2-4. In Miami’s Cam Ward, this will be the best QB the Cyclones have faced since CMC became the coach in 2016. Last week, Campbell outlined a lengthy list of injuries, that included star defensive back Malik Verdon. I’m assuming Ward keeps to his word and plays. How affective will he be? How much will he play? There’s no statistical reason to believe Iowa State wins, but what the heck.Iowa State 34, Miami 30.

Chris Hassel: I’ll believe Cam Ward is playing when I see it. And if I do see it, I still won’t believe he will play more than a half of the game. Even still, Miami has superior talent and I’m just going to ride with that.Miami 31, Iowa State 21.

Chris Williams:  I’ll tell you right now, I’m not confident on any of these bowl picks. I’ll take Miami only because Cam Ward says he is playing at the time of publishing this. Iowa State hasn’t been great in these neutral-site bowls/championship type games. This feels like the safe play. Hope I am wrong. Miami 30, Iowa State 27.

Keith Murphy:Unless opt-outs pour in late, this is a bad match-up for ISU. Miami 35, Iowa State 24.

Matt Van Winkle:Cam Ward says he is playing, but I find it hard to believe it will be much. Regardless, Iowa State’s defense will have its hands full with the highest scoring team in the nation. Cyclones keep it close, but the Hurricanes win. I hope I’m wrong because how fun would it be to see Matt Campbell take a bit of a pop-tart on the field? Miami 27, Iowa State 21.

Andrew Downs:Cam Ward plays long enough, and the Cyclone comeback falls short. Miami 31, Iowa State 28.

Jake Brend:At this point, it seems like Cam Ward is actually going to play. If he plays, I have a really hard time getting the 2023 Liberty Bowl out of my head. I think both teams put up a lot of points but Ward ultimately proves why he’s a top 5 pick. Onto basketball season.Miami 42, Iowa State 31.

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IOWA-No. 19 MISSOURI (Dec. 30)

(1:30 p.m., Music City Bowl, Nashville, ESPN)

Peterson: Iowa wins, if Kaleb Johnson plays. But since he’s not. . . Missouri 24, Iowa 10.

Hassel: Missouri is ranked. Until Iowa proves it can play with a ranked team, I’m not going to pick them. Missouri 17, Iowa 14.

Williams:Honestly have no clue but without Kaleb Johnson, I have little faith in Iowa’s offense. Missouri 20, Iowa 9.

Murphy:No Kaleb Johnson. No depth at QB.Missouri 24, Iowa 16.

Van Winkle:I’m really bummed Kaleb Johnson isn’t playing in this game. I really don’t know how good Mizzou is. At one point they were ranked No. 6 but never really did much after that. Iowa’s defense keeps this close, but the offense struggles.  Missouri 27, Iowa 21.

Downs:Iowa’s defense holds strong, Brendan Sullivan is good enough, and the Hawkeyes find a way. Iowa 17, Missouri 14.

Brend:Missouri is decimated with opt outs and Iowa doesn’t have its only offensive weapon. How will either team score? It’ll be ugly and Iowa usually wins when it’s ugly.Iowa 13, Missouri 10.

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RUTGERS-KANSAS STATE

(Dec. 26 Rate Bowl, Phoenix)

Peterson: Kansas State 24, Rutgers 17.

Hassel: Rutgers 20, Kansas State 17.

Williams: Kansas State 28, Rutgers 14.

Murphy: Kansas State 31, Rutgers 21. 

Downs: Kansas State 28, Rutgers 17.

Van Winkle: Kansas State 28, Rutgers 17.

Brend: Kansas State 34, Rutgers 17.

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BYU-COLORADO

(Dec. 28 Alamo Bowl, San Antonio)

Peterson: Colorado 31, BYU 28.

Hassel: Colorado 38, BYU 31.

Williams: BYU 34, Colorado 31.

Murphy: Colorado 38, BYU 24. 

Van Winkle: Colorado 34, BYU 28.

Downs: Colorado 31, BYU 27.

Brend: Colorado 35, BYU 24.

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ALABAMA-MICHIGAN

(Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl, Tampa)

Peterson: Alabama 31, Michigan 21.

Hassel: Alabama 27, Michigan 10.

Williams: Alabama 21, Michigan 13.

Murphy: Alabama 35, Michigan 14. 

Van Winkle: Alabama 42, Michigan 17.

Downs: Alabama 35, Michigan 20.

Brend: Alabama 26, Michigan 13.

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BOSTON COLLEGE-NEBRASKA

(Dec. 28 Pinstripe Bowl, Yankee Stadium)

Peterson: Nebraska 24, Boston College 21.

Hassel: Nebraska 30, Boston College 17.

Williams: Nebraska 17, Boston College 14.

Murphy: Nebraska 28, Boston College 17. 

Van Winkle: Nebraska 28, Boston College 14.

Downs: Nebraska 28, Boston College 21.

Brend: Nebraska 20, Boston College 14.