Randy Peterson
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August 26, 2024
Finally. Game Week. Cyclones and Hawkeyes open at home on Saturday. Matt Campbell will be on the sidelines. Kirk Ferentz will be elsewhere. You knew that, of course, but here’s some things you might now know.
** Campbell will replace Dan McCarney as Iowa State’s winningest football coach sometime very soon. That’s a no-brainer, for a coach entering his ninth season, and for you national experts who predicted no-way would CMC be in Ames that long . . .
Well, you’re as wrong as you were when you said the Big 12 would disintegrate when Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado and others fled for conferences they deemed better-suited for how their football futures.
Campbell’s ninth season starts at home Saturday, against North Dakota (not State). Ninth season. He’s already been at Iowa State longer than all but two others – McCarney (12 seasons) and Clay Stapleton (10). He’s already won more Big 12 games than any other Cyclones coach.
He’s had plenty of opportunities to leave, yet he’s still at Iowa State. He’s been in it for the long haul. More high-level recruits are on the way. Star players have turned down considerable cash offers to transfer. Fans love him. His family is a wonderful community fit. He could end up (but probably won’t) coaching Cyclones football longer than Bill Fennelly has been CEO of the women’s basketball team (heading into 30th ISU season), if he wants.
So, unless something drastically changes – like Ohio State or Penn State someday successfully luring Iowa State’s best-ever football coach, or if there’s an appealing NFL coaching vacancy in the Midwest -- he not going anywhere. He’d have done it by now.
What else am I predicting before the Fighting Hawks and not the Bison trek from the State of North Dakota to Ames?
** ABU SAMA AND 1,000 RUSHING YARDS
The former Southeast Polk superstar flashed while rushing for 614 yards last season. He especially officially showed up on college football’s running backs radar after sloshing through the snow for 276 yards on just 16 carries at Kansas State.
“This kid reminds me of Walter Payton,” FOX analyst Spencer Tillman told the national viewing audience that night, and then he added: “He’s like a pinball wizard.”
While the sophomore won’t reach 276 again in a game this season, he’ll still be Iowa State’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Breece Hall’s 1,472 yards on 253 carries in 2021. That’ll be quite an achievement, too, given the Cyclones’ buffet of offensive weapons.
The running backs room is crowded with so many capable rushers, that watching them go end-to-end can cause whiplash. There’s returnee Carson Hansen, Eastern Michigan transfer Jaylon Jackson, and true freshman Dylan Lee. New offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser is likely to open up the offense even more than it opened after last season’s Ohio debacle. And let’s not forget that quarterback Rocco Becht, a returning quarterback who’s under-rated by many alleged national experts, might be throwing to the Big 12’s best receiver group.
In other words, there’s so many solid offensive possibilities, that rushing for 1,000 yards will be quite an achievement -- when Sama does it sometime during the K-State game.
** LONGER ISU PASSING PLAYS THAN PREVIOUS SEASONS
I’m holding them to their word, when Campbell, Mouser and Becht said to keep an eye down the field. With all those deep threats, that’s where the ball could be headed. Intel from inside closed practice gates back that up.
That’s why, assuming no significant injuries and assuming solid play up front, there’s reason to believe the 2024 Cyclones can eclipse last season’s deep total that included only eight passing plays of 50 yards or more. The top two in that list, 82 yards and 79 yards by the Becht-to-Noel combination, came in the snow at Kansas State.
At least a dozen passing plays of 50-plus yards -- with this season’s group and on solid footing – seem within reason.
“That’s the plan,” Becht said during an April interview. “More passes and more deep balls. That’s what we’re hoping for.”
** THE POSTSEASON: IOWA
Don’t get squashed at Ohio State on Oct. 5, win the games you’re picked to win, and a regular-season finish just outside the Top 10 yet close enough for CFP consideration, seems do-able. No Oregon. No Penn State. No Michigan. Wisconsin at Kinnick Stadium. Get my drift? The Hawkeyes could be favored in 11 of 12 regular-season games. Keep an eye, however, on the Friday Nov. 8 game at UCLA. Non-traditional playing day. New site. Long trip (almost 1,700 miles one way). Shorter prep.
** THE POSTSEASON: IOWA STATE
Look at the schedule’s back end: 24th-ranked Kansas at Arrowhead, home against Cincinnati, at No. 13 Utah, then home against 17th-ranked Kansas State. That’s daunting, which makes winning six or seven of the first eight games paramount.
At least 2-1 heading into the Sept. 28 game at Houston is likely. Four-and-one heading to West Virginia? Don’t bet against it. Home games against UCF and Texas Tech also are good bets – especially at Jack Trice Stadium.
Have success early, then hold on tight for a wild Utah-Kansas State finish.
** MOST UNDERRATED TEAM: BIG 12
As per usual, the only Cyclones love comes from within our own state. That’s all right; Iowa State is used to it – used to proving wrong naysayers who can’t accept that, without major injury, Campbell’s starting lineup can be as good as anyone’s in the Big 12.
I saw first-hand a transformation after the head-scratching 10-7 loss at Ohio last season – a game in which the Cyclones’ offense was so horrible that Becht said afterwards: “We didn’t come here with the urgency we needed right off the bat.”
That was on the players. It was on the coaches for that mindset creeping into the locker room. It didn’t happen again.
The offense opened. The offensive line played with more physicality. Running backs ran with aggression. The offense opened, to the extent that Becht was the Big 12’s offensive freshman of the year.
With key returning players at every position that turned negative into positive – my thought is that Iowa State has every right to be considered among the Big 12’s finest.
** MOST UNDERRATED TEAM: BIG TEN
Uhh, easy choice here. The Big Ten’s most underrated team is . . .
Iowa. Despite having a comfort zone also known as the Big Ten West taken away with the new division-less conference, I’ll reiterate what I said earlier:
That coach Kirk Ferentz’ team will be favored in most games (if not all) except for at Ohio State, for if Iowa is as good as I’ve read and heard – winning 10 or 11 regular-season games seems a cinch.
** WHEN WILL MATT CAMPBELL BE IOWA STATE’S WINNINGEST COACH?
Here’s the deal: If the Cyclones win at Iowa for the second time in a row, then Campbell’s record-breaking 57th career Iowa State win will happen Sept. 28 at Houston. If Cy loses at Iowa, then it’ll happen at home Oct. 5 against Baylor.
Regardless, at some point, CMC will become the school’s winningest football coach way before Halloween get-ups have even gone on sale.
(Randy Peterson can be reached at randypete4846@gmail.com or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close)