PETE: Cy-Hawk predictions galore

This is a no-brainer: The only other Cy-Hawk football game with more anticipation than what’s about to unfold Saturday in Iowa City, was when both were inside the 2021 Top Ten.

Game.

Set.

Last-possession victory on Saturday  . . .

. . . but for whom?

Four of seven times these teams played since Matt Campbell became the Cyclones’ coach, have been one-score thrillers. That, along with an historic 2024 postseason that could await the winner, is why this 2:30 p.m., (CBS) game at Kinnick Stadium is so intriguing.

(Insert here my annual plea for greedy television network suits NOT to do away with this game, while helping college administrators re-draw the next round of conference reconstruction).

Back to the game . . .

Picking the Cyclones to win was the trendy way to go -- until the first quarter of last Saturday’s win against North Dakota. When middle linebacker Caleb Bacon went down with a leg injury that required Sunday surgery – fans were left scratching heads and wondering just what this meant to another Cy-Hawk.

Losing Bacon for at least part of the season, isn’t like quarterback Rocco Becht being unavailable to sling long and accurate passes toward Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. That would be devastation. This is a setback that eventually can be worked through.

Not having your best linebacker, and one of the top two players on a very good defense, however, means winning Cy-Hawk just became that much harder for an Iowa State team that was a 2 ½-point underdog.

Note I didn’t say impossible. Anything can happen, especially for teams that specialize in defense, in a game that’s usually close -- and can change with one turnover, a missed kick, a botched assignment, or a great special teams play.

Remember 1998: Iowa State 27, Iowa 9 in Iowa City?

If a four-touchdown underdog Iowa State team can end a 15-game Kinnick Stadium losing streak, anything can happen – even with the head of an Iowa State defense unable to do anything other than watch and inspire from the sidelines on Saturday.

The Hawkeyes’ offense is still suspect, we figure, despite a 34-point second half last Saturday against Illinois State. The Cyclones’ Jon Heacock always (usually) finds a way, and Saturday may be no different. That task just took on another dimension, though, when Campbell announced Tuesday that Bacon would be out a while.

For the very successful program Campbell runs, that’s like losing Mike Rose or Joel Lanning, standout middle linebackers of recent seasons. It looks especially bad on Saturday, because there’s not a lot of depth, anyhow, at that position.

Injured expected starter Will McLaughlin wasn’t even on the most recent depth chart. Last season’s 13-game starter Jack Sadowsky didn’t start in the season-opening game.

Frankly, because of injuries, Iowa State isn’t as stocked at the position, right now, as it’s been. That could be very evident during a game sure to include an opponent jacked to win coach Kirk Ferentz’season-opening game (after sitting out a one-game suspension), a team playing at home, and against one of the nation’s top tight ends (Luke Lachey), who’s been known to burn opponents catching passes in areas usually occupied by linebackers.

By my count, half of Lachey’s six receptions were in the linebacker area last Saturday, and that’s significant. At least seven other Cade McNamara completions were less than 10 yards. That’s revealing, too.

And let’s not pooh-pooh Iowa’s 241 yards rushing yards (6 yards a handoff) in its opener against Illinois State. 

Impossible for a Cyclones win against the nation’s 21st-ranked team?

Heavens no.

**

The Cyclones might have to resort to being pass-first to do it, however, and we know after last Saturday’s first two plays – that’s at least in the playbook.

Against North Dakota, Becht opened the game with a 54-yard completion to Noel, whose mind-boggling catch is still making the highlight reel rounds. On the game’s second play, Rocco hit Higgins on a perfect fade route in the corner of the end zone.

After two plays and just 38 seconds, the Cyclones showed their passing prowess, albeit against a defense that won’t be anything like they’ll see Saturday.

Iowa State will need more of that Saturday -- or at least until the running game shows what we think it eventually will show. That’s not a dig at sophomore running back Abu Sama, either. Sometimes it’s tough to run against a defense that has seven or eight defenders darn near on the line of scrimmage.

I don’t suspect Iowa will do that. As a matter of fact, I know the Hawkeyes won’t regularly do that.

**

And finally

CBS has Iowa the No. 11 seed in the College Football Playoffs, facing Oregon in its first game. The web site has Iowa State in the Texas Bowl against Tennessee.

Just saying . . .

**

IOWA STATE at IOWA

2:30 pm, Kinnick Stadium, CBS

Randy Peterson: Like others on this panel, I mentally switched picks many times. Bacon’s injury is significant – very significant. Unless Iowa State can muster up a running game that sidelines Iowa’s offense (especially Lachey and running back Kaleb Johnson), a close one goes to the home team in a low-possession game. Iowa 13, Iowa State 10.

Chris Hassel:The Caleb Bacon injury and Iowa’s re-birth on offense got me to re-think my pre-season pick. But I’m going to avoid the urge to over-react and over-correct. Outside of Ohio State, this is the best QB/WRs combination Iowa will see all season. Cyclones 20, Iowa 17.

Keith Murphy:Iowa has dominated this series in the Matt Campbell era. Expect more of the same Saturday. Iowa’s defense and special teams are too good, and the offense is good enough to win in Kirk Ferentz’ return. Iowa 21, Iowa State 17.

Matt Van Winkle:Iowa State’s run game will struggle for yards. The “air raid” approach won’t cut it against an elite Iowa defense. Iowa 20, Iowa State 13.

Chris Williams:I had Iowa State winning this game going into the season, but the injury situation has me spooked. The Cyclones have it in them to win this one on the road. But I know the Ferentz staff is going to see the hole in Iowa State’s defense. Nobody is better at winning ugly than Iowa. You have to give the edge to the home team.Iowa 20, Iowa State 17.

Andrew Downs:Campbell can’t help himself, plays into Iowa’s game plan again.Iowa 24, Iowa State 17.

 Jake Brend: Matt Campbell should hand the keys to Taylor Mouser, but won’t. A too conservative ISU offense and a just-good-enough Iowa offense are the deciding factors.Iowa 17, Iowa State 13.

**

What’s this panel of alleged experts say about other games involving teams in our Power 4 conferences? Will there be more nastiness and trash talking in the tailgate lots surrounding The Big House in Ann Arbor, than on the field? Colorado and Baylor head coaches aren’t on each other’s Christmas card list. Is Kansas as good as what people say?

**

Texas at Michigan

Peterson: Texas 31, Michigan 24

Hassel: Texas 23, Michigan 17.

Murphy:Texas 27, Michigan 17.

Van Winkle: Texas 35, Michigan 24.

Williams: Texas 24, Michigan 10.

Downs: Texas 31, Michigan 24.

Brend: Texas 24, Michigan 10.

**

Colorado at Nebraska

Peterson: Colorado 31, Nebraska 17.

Hassel: Nebraska 30, Colorado 21

Murphy:Nebraska 34, Colorado 28.

Van Winkle: Nebraska 35, Colorado 31.

Williams: Nebraska 38, Colorado 24.

Andrew Downs: Nebraska 28, Colorado 14.

Brend: Nebraska 31, Colorado 20.

**

Kansas at Illinois

Peterson: Kansas 27, Illinois 24

Hassel: Kansas 28, Illinois 20

Murphy:Kansas 31, Illinois 27.

Van Winkle: Kansas 31, Illinois 20.

Williams: Kansas 27, Illinois 24.

Downs: Kansas 34, Illinois 28.

Brend: Kansas 27, Illinois 14.

**

Michigan State at Maryland

Peterson: Maryland 27, Michigan State 20

Hassel: Maryland 31, Michigan State 13.

Murphy:Maryland 28, Michigan State 18.

Van Winkle: Maryland 28, Michigan State 10.

Williams: Maryland 34, Michigan State 21.

Downs: Maryland 41, Michigan State 31.

Brend: Maryland 30, Michigan State 10.

**

Kansas State at Tulane

Peterson: Kansas State 34, Tulane 17.

Hassel: Kansas State 31, Tulane 20.

Murphy:Kansas State 31, Tulane 14.

Winkle: Kansas State 27, Tulane 21.

Williams: Kansas State 24, Tulane 17.

Downs: Kansas State 35, Tulane 14.

Brend: Kansas State 24, Tulane 20.

(Randy Peterson can be reached at randypete4846@gmail.com or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close)