PETE: Iowa State football has come so far under Campbell, that we can’t even predict the plays anymore

Remember the days Iowa State football fans knew what play was coming on specific down-and-distance situations? Quarterback draw. Handoff into the line. Fade pass in the end zone corner.

These days, we don’t even know which running back will be a game’s top rusher.

Furthermore, remember back when we knew linebackers Mike Rose, Jake Hummel and O’Rien Vance not only were starting every game for almost three seasons, but playing darn near every snap? These days, the Cyclones are playing as many as five or six in a game.

The offensive line has been consistently good, which is somewhat of a change, although we saw last season that it was trending this way. Special teams are good, too.

Those are just the most glaring examples of how far Iowa State football has come during Matt Campbell’s nine years of methodically turning a “laughing stock” program, into a Top Ten, heading into Saturday’s 6:30 p.m., game against UCF at Jack Trice Stadium.

This team is good. Among the nation’s finest – and that’s real.

“We’ve been in these moments,” Campbell told reporters Tuesday. “We’ve been in some of these opportunities where Iowa State football has kind of been creeping up and doing really powerful things in a positive way.

“What you try to do is use that history and share why you either were successful handling some of those things, and maybe why you weren’t.

“That’s probably one nice thing about being here. We’ve been in some of these moments and can use our past experiences to help guide the ship.”

This just in: Iowa State hasn’t been 7-0 since 1938. That’s obviously before anyone associated with the program was even born. FDR (a Dem.) was the president. Denver, Luther, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, Marquette and Drake were the first seven opponents.

Almost 90 years later, we’ll soon elect a new president, Kansas is still on the schedule – and Iowa State football is successfully doing some unpredictable stuff.

We got a glimpse of that on this season’s first two offensive plays – completions of 54 yards to Jaylin Noel, followed by a 21-yard touchdown toss to Jayden Higgins. We saw a little of it last Saturday at West Virginia, when the Cyclones actually ran an option play – that I presume was scripted, not the byproduct of a broken play.

About the time you think you know something about this team, you don’t – except that it’s loaded with talent that has eligibility remaining beyond 2024.

So, as we inch closer to the final game, let’s ponder this:

UCF has the Big 12’s second-best rushing defense, so does that mean a plethora of Rocco Becht passes during a game in which the Cyclones can be 7-0 heading into their second Saturday without an opponent?

Don’t bet on it. If I know Campbell and offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser like I think I do, statistics mean about as much as a typical major-college depth chart.

They’ll continue doing what they do, and they’ll do it with whichever of the three backs are having the best game.

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THE RED ZONE

First down: Since the first College Football Playoffs ratings will be released at 6 p.m., on Election Day (Nov. 5), will we see NBC stat dude Steve Kornacki at his big board, breaking down the Top 12, like he does the tight political race? Golly, I hope so.

Second down: Check out what happened to Oklahoma State Mike Gundy while hanging out at his ranch during his team’s Saturday without a game. He was head-butted by a cow. “I guess they have been watching us play, and I got head-butted,” he told local reporters Monday.

Third down: I don’t know what to make of West Virginia coach Neal Brown. On Monday after his team’s loss against Iowa State, he begged fans not to give up on his program. He did it by pushing the entertainment value of college football. "Did (fans) have a good time? Did they enjoy it? It was a pretty good atmosphere. You know, I'm assuming they probably had a pretty good time tailgating. If they're in the deal for enjoyment, then I would come back.”

Fourth down: What if the West Virginia fans are in it for watching their Mountaineers win? Uh, Brown didn’t address that. His team hosts Kansas State on Saturday during a game that the first graph of a postgame story could read (if his team loses): “At least the tailgating was good.” Sometimes after orations like that – coaches find themselves in the stands with fans he just addressed.

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UCF (1-2, 3-3) at No. 9 IOWA STATE (3-0, 6-0)

6:30 p.m., FS1, Jack Trice Stadium

Randy Peterson: Iowa State goes into its bye week full steam ahead toward the Big 12 title game. I honestly don’t see the Cyclones losing during the regular season. Iowa State 31, UCF 10.

Chris Hassel: Iowa State is everything that UCF is not. Should be over by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. Iowa State 31, UCF 14.

Keith Murphy: Iowa State gives up an early touchdown, and then puts UCF in the Heacock Headlock until garbage time. Iowa State 31. UCF 14.

Matt Van Winkle: These are two teams trending in completely different directions. UCF has dropped three in a row and switched starting QBs. Iowa State just played its best game of the season and is just scratching the surface on offense. Clones stay unbeaten. Iowa State 31, UCF 13.

Chris Williams: Two red zone turnovers doomed UCF last week, but they moved the ball a lot better when messing around with quarterbacks. I don’t expect Gus Malzahn’s team to be a finished product when it comes to Ames, as there appears to be some culture problems amongst all of their transfers this year. But this is the type of team - with its slog style of play -- that can keep things somewhat close. Iowa State 27, UCF 14.

Andrew Downs: Slow starts be damned. The Cyclones roll from the kick. Iowa State 31, UCF 13.

Jake Brend: I know I’m looking like a homer but I’ve watched every snap of Central Florida this season and I just don’t see where a world where they can put up many points, no matter who they roll out at quarterback. The better-coached and more disciplined team rolls to set up a second half party in Ames. Iowa State 41, UCF 13.

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IOWA (2-1, 4-2) at MICHIGAN STATE (2-1, 4-2)

6:30 p.m., Spartan Stadium, NBC.

Peterson: Iowa wins this game in blowout fashion. The Hawkeyes rush the ball at-will, with Kaleb Johnson surpassing 200 yards by the start of the fourth quarter. Iowa 37, Michigan State 13.

Hassel: The fact that this is only a 5.5-point spread is a little concerning. On paper this looks like Iowa rolls and I’m going to trust my gut over Vegas which is probably a mistake.Iowa 31, Michigan State 17.

Murphy: Iowa found some confidence against Washington. It will pay at Michigan State. Hawkeyes keep scoring 21+. Iowa 24, Michigan State 14.

Van Winkle: The Hawkeyes are feeling good after a drubbing of Washington. While it's far from perfect, the offense is starting to find some rhythm. A night game in Lansing will be a tough test, but I like the Hawks to get it done on the road. Iowa 28, Michigan State 20.

Williams: This is a great matchup for the Hawkeyes. Michigan State’s offense is ranked a lowly 123rd nationally in scoring. The Spartans don’t protect the quarterback and are just ok on defense. Iowa 27, Michigan State 13.

Downs: The Hawkeyes continue to hit the over. Iowa 28, Michigan State 17.

Brend: Michigan State ranks 118th in the country in turnover margin, that’s not a good recipe as the Iowa defense is looking more and more like their 2023 form by the week. Iowa is the better team and has the best player on the field… they force four turnovers and Kaleb Johnson goes for 150+ again in a stress-free win. Iowa 23, Michigan State 10.

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OKLAHOMA STATE at BYU

Peterson: BYU 31, Oklahoma State 30.

Hassel: BYU 24, Oklahoma State 14.

Murphy:  BYU 31, Oklahoma State 17.

Van Winkle:BYU 35, Oklahoma State 21.

Williams: BYU 31, Oklahoma State 24.

Downs: BYU 35, Oklahoma State 27

Brend:BYU 26, Oklahoma State 17.

**

ARIZONA STATE at CINCINNATI

Peterson: Arizona State 24, Cincinnati 20.

Hassel: Cincinnati 24, Arizona State 13.

Murphy:  Cincinnati 28, Arizona State 18.

Van Winkle: Arizona State 24, Cincinnati 20.

Williams: Cincinnati 24, Arizona State 20.

Downs: Arizona State 30, Cincinnati 28.

Brend:Arizona State 24, Cincinnati 20.

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KANSAS STATE at WEST VIRGINIA

Peterson: Kansas State 31, West Virginia 20.

Hassel: Kansas State 27, West Virginia 21.

Murphy:  Kansas State 24, West Virginia 21.

Van Winkle:Kansas State 35, West Virginia 21.

Williams: Kansas State 28, West Virginia 20.

Downs: Kansas State 24, West Virginia 20.

Brend:Kansas State 20, West Virginia 13.

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NEBRASKA at INDIANA

Peterson: Nebraska 20, Indiana 17.

Hassel: Nebraska 30, Indiana 28.

Murphy: Nebraska 24, Indiana 21.

Williams: Nebraska 27, Indiana 24.

Van Winkle: Nebraska 28, Indiana 24.

Downs: Nebraska 21, Indiana 17.

Brend:Nebraska 21, Indiana 20.

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WISCONSIN at NORTHWESTERN

Peterson: Wisconsin 17, Northwestern 13.

Hassel: Wisconsin 28, Northwestern 13.

Murphy: Wisconsin 21, Northwestern 10.

Van Winkle:Wisconsin 20, Northwestern 10.

Williams: Wisconsin 30, Northwestern 10.

Downs: Northwestern 23, Wisconsin 21.

Brend:Wisconsin 30, Northwestern 0.

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MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS

Peterson: Illinois 20, Michigan 17.

Hassel: Illinois 17, Michigan 14.

Murphy: Illinois 22, Michigan 21.

Van Winkle:Illinois 21, Michigan 20.

Williams: Michigan 20, Illinois 14.

Downs: Illinois 21, Michigan 17.

Brend:Illinois 20, Michigan 6.