Randy Peterson
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February 13, 2025
Late-week timeout meanderings, a few days before Big 12 Saturday includes a game that avid conference-watchers anxiously have been awaiting.
That’d be when first-place Houston plays at second-place Arizona -- a game clearly featuring, for now, the league’s best two teams.
Emphasize the “for now” part, because there’s still seven or so games remaining during which lots can change, before we’ll know names of the fortunate four who get the conference tournament double-byes.
UNDER 16:Iowa State’s losing streak was just an annoying three-game hiccup
That, of course, is as long as Tamin Lipsey can continue playing well despite a broken thumb. The Cyclones need his leadership, calming effect, top-notch defense, and playmaking. To win big games, they need him. They also need him against so-so teams, like during Tuesday’s 77-65 victory at UCF.
“They’re a top 10 in the nation,” UCF coach Johnny Dawkins said after the game. “They showed at times why they are that.”
At times?
I guess that’s right. Seven-of-28 three-point shooting won’t always cut it, like it did Tuesday against Dawkins’ team in Orlando.
Iowa State opens a two-game homestand against Cincinnati Saturday, and then against Colorado on Tuesday. The Cyclones should be 11-4 in the Big 12 after those two likely wins – and then it gets tougher.
Coach T.J., Otzelberger’s team has two in what most would put in the “Games Bigger Than Others (GBTO)" category. That’s my (not so) fancy term for games against teams legitimately with Big 12 title hopes – before the Cyclones finish the regular season at trending Kansas State.
Iowa State’s list of GBTO’s is at Houston on Feb. 22, and home against Arizona on March 1 – games in which a split is the most likely outcome.
Now that Milan Momcilovic is playing again, post players are dominating like they were, because opponents can’t over-crowd the lane. That’s opened up under-the-rim spaces for Keshon Gilbert, whose drives to the hoop aren’t as ill-advised these days, as when he was going 1-on-3.
Three-point shots are falling again. Bench players are scoring – from where Iowa State needs as much Brandton Chatfield, Nate Heise and Demarion Watson as it can continue to get. Heise and Chatfield were at their best Tuesday at UCF. That must continue.
As for the Games Bigger Than Others among the leaders:
Houston has them remaining against Arizona, Iowa State, Texas Tech – and Kansas. Arizona’s are against Houston, Iowa State – and Kansas. Texas Tech you wonder? Against Houston – and Kansas.
PREDICTION: Iowa State enters the Big 12 tournament as a No. 2 seed – behind Houston, and ahead of Arizona and Texas Tech. Yes, that means the Cyclones win at least six of their final seven games.
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UNDER 12:And speaking of Kansas . . .
Too much must happen throughout the league, for the 8-5 Jayhawks to be much more than a spoiler – a pain-in-the-rear team that could at least have a say in who finishes on top.
For now, coach Bill Self’s team is first-out on the four-team double-bye list. Remember, they opened the season as the nation’s No. 1 team, and stayed there four polls after that.
The Jayhawks, which have lost four of their last nine games, have a very tough stretch that includes a finishing trifecta of Texas Tech, Houston and Arizona.
PREDICTION: Kansas misses the Big 12’s double-bye, then gets an opportunity to play itself into a No. 2 NCAA Tournament seed.
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UNDER 8:Interested in an early peek at the top of the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket?
Like it or not, the NCAA Tournament selection committee shows us what it’s thinking, when revealing their top 16 seeds at 11:30 a.m., Saturday on CBS – way ahead of the March 16 official Selection Sunday.
Of course, it can change. Of course it will change.
Last year at this time, Iowa State was a 3-seed on the early reveal – and ended up a 2-seed. In 2023, the Cyclones were an early 3, then officially a six seed. In 2019, Iowa State was fourth, and went into the tournament as a 6.
This reveal won’t be nearly as controversial as the College Football Playoff committee’s early rankings during the most recent College Football Playoffs buildup.
PREDICTION: Iowa State will be what amounts to a three-seed during Saturday’s reveal.
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UNDER 4:The Hoosiers’ social media hot list is predictable
And yes, most unofficial Indiana candidate lists include the requisite Iowa State coach, plus a host of others.
The only list that counts is the one Hoosiers athletic director Scott Dolson keeps in his desk drawer. That, and the one with which the head-hunting company comes up.
I doubt either are sharing their lists, no matter how buddy-buddy they may be with respected reporters.
PREDICTION: Otzelberger won’t replace Mike Woodson in the chair Bobby Knight once sat.
(Randy Peterson can be reached at randypete4846@gmail.com or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close)