PETE: Revisit pre-season Iowa State expectations, compare them to now. You won’t see much difference. And is Cincy already making excuses?

Three-for-three.

Three questions and/or thoughts, with three Iowa State regular-season football games remaining in a season that’s certainly not looking as good now, as it was a month ago. . . . but that’s still possible to end with a school-record 10 wins.

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THOUGHT: An overview of what may have been over-zealous expectations

Let’s back up a few months. To around July. College football was the topic. Everyone had a prediction, and in Iowa State’s case, we knew Matt Campbell’s ninth team had the makings of being pretty darn good. Rocco Becht. Jaylin Noel, Jayden Higgins. J.R. Singleton. Will McLaughlin. Jeremiah Cooper. Beau Freyler. Ben Brahmer. Abu Sama. They were among 20 or more starters returning to a program that was trending at a higher rate than Cyclones football has trended.

If Iowa State could stay healthy, we figured nine, maybe 10 wins. Read that sentence again. Three words: Could stay healthy.

We figured no worse than 2-1 during the non-conference season. We figured 2-0 to start the Big 12. At West Virginia was a pre-season toss-up. We had no idea what to expect out of newcomer UCF, but we leaned toward “W.”

Five sure wins out of those first seven games was realistic. Maybe six, if the Cyclones beat Iowa in Iowa City, but winning all seven?

Pass me some of that Kool-Aid.

College Football Playoffs?

I’ll take another – and make this one a double.

Well, it happened, despite a handful of injuries that hit the linebackers especially hard. Expectations suddenly changed, as respected college football national experts started putting Campbell’s team in CFP projections.

Now, there’s more starters injured at the same time, than I or anyone else can recall. Now, the Cyclones have proven accurate the adage about trusting initial instincts.

Yet now, there’s still longshot hope for 10.

Go figure.

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QUESTION: How can Iowa State’s defense be fixed?

The easy answer is for a miraculous recovery from injuries, that have sidelined so many starters, that I’ve lost track.

“We’re going through it right now,” Campbell told reporters Tuesday. “The last four weeks have been really hard. I don’t have an update of who will be back, or won’t be back.”

That doesn’t sound promising.

When you’re asking more than a handful of freshmen, sophomores and walk-ons to master a complex defense – that may be too much to ask. The Cyclones have changed up looks recently, with more four-man fronts. That may work at times, but the breakdowns in the secondary have been exhausting. Opponent receivers have been open way too many times lately. I don’t know how many assignments were missed against Kansas, but I’m it was a season high.

I trust in Jon Heacock. If there’s a way to fix his side of the ball, he’ll find it.

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QUESTION: Are opponents onto the Cyclones’ plays? Is the offense and defense becoming too predictable?

Let’s start with the offense. It’s not so much that defensive coordinators know what’s coming, as it is execution from veteran players. Receivers have muffed passes they usually catch. Offensive linemen have been called for penalties during inopportune moments – like being too far down field on passes, and moving before the ball has been snapped. Those mistakes are inexcusable, this late into the season, but there’s more.

Quarterback Rocco Becht has been mostly very, very good, but there’s been other times when passes have sailed. And last Saturday against Kansas, overthrowing wide open Stevo Klotz in the end zone was as confounding, as not scoring the past two games during situations that included first downs inside the opponents’ 10-yard line.

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THE RED ZONE

First down: Is Cincinnati coach Scott Satterfield already strategizing an excuse, if Iowa State beats his team Saturday in Ames? “Their field is not a good field, no other way to say it,” he told local reporters this week about the Cyclones’ real-grass surface. “For years, you can watch guys are slipping. It’s both teams. They certainly need to look at what they can do to get a better field. Maybe they like it like that. Maybe that’s a homefield advantage for them.” He’s right. Players for both teams have slipped, but to suggest the school might look at bettering a field on which he’s never coached? That seems a bit brash. Furthermore, two of three B12 home games have started at 6:36 p.m., and 6:45 p.m. Dew tends to set in at night, I believe. The afternoon Texas Tech game was played during a steady mist. Excuses. Excuses. Excuses.

Second down: You caught the blurb about Dana Holgorsen becoming Nebraska’s temporary offensive coordinator for the season’s final three games, I presume. He’ll be calling plays against USC, Wisconsin and Iowa, against whom the Huskers need to win at least one to go bowling for the first time since 2016. Just think, the coach (while at West Virginia) who criticized Iowa State fans, now with a chance to help Nebraska end the longest power conference bowl drought. Holgorsen’s resume includes head or assistant coaching gigs at Valdosta State, Mississippi College, Wingate, Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, TCU and now the Huskers. That’s nine schools, and at 53 years old, he can add maybe a half-dozen more.

Third down: Someone asked Campbell Tuesday about Tyson Veidt, Matt’s longtime assistant who is defensive coordinator at Cincinnati. During his response, Campbell mentioned that coaching against former staffers can be challenging. “This is always unique,” Campbell said. “We had it last week . . . We had it last week with two players (tight end DeShawn Hanika and offensive lineman Darrell Simmons), and a staff member that stayed here through the spring . . . .”  That’d be Eric Terrazas, who, according to the Kansas football web site, “joined the Kansas football staff as an offensive analyst in April of 2024, following a season as an offensive analyst at Iowa State in 2023.” Iowa State’s spring game, in case you forgot, was last April 20.

Fourth down: Campbell had nothing but praise for Veidt, who came with him to Iowa State from Toledo. “Tyson did such a great job here,” Campbell said. “He was such a key figure. We’re great friends. Our families are best friends. You are so proud he earned the opportunity to go and become a defensive coordinator in the Big 12, let alone, (at a place) that’s got the history of Cincinnati football.”

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IOWA EVERYWHERE WEEKEND GUESSES

Cincinnati at Iowa State

7 p.m., FOX, Jack Trice Stadium

Randy Peterson: Is this when Iowa State hops back on the track it was travelling a month ago? I’ve got faith that Heacock will somehow piece together a defense that keeps shifty quarterback Brendan Sorsby at least somewhat from causing havoc to the banged-up defense. Becht and Co., will have to score a lot of points in this one. Win the toss – and receive. Iowa State 38, Cincinnati 35.

Chris Hassel: This is it for Iowa State. Turn it around now or the season is in total collapse. I trust Matt Campbell and Jon Heacock to figure enough out to beat Cincy at home. But I’m not sure it will be pretty. Iowa State 29, Cincinnati 24.

Chris Williams: Feels like a last stand for Matt Campbell’s team, which entered the season with the goal of winning a Big 12 championship. The injuries seem insurmountable on defense. I’m banking on the offense carrying Iowa State to a big win and keeping its title hopes alive. Iowa State 34, Cincinnati 28.

Keith Murphy: Iowa State can't lose three in a row, right? It's time to steer out of this skid against a better than people realize Cincinnati team. Iowa State 28, Cincinnati 21.

Andrew Downs: Cyclone fans step off the ledge for one week. Iowa State 35, Cincinnati 31.

Matt Van Winkle: For any hope at a Big 12 title, the Cyclones need this one. The last two weeks have been a major reality check after an historic start to the season. Defense continues to be the biggest issue with multiple injuries and inexperienced backups being called upon in big spots. I still trust Iowa State's offensive weapons. Get them the ball at all costs. Give me the home team in a tight one. Iowa State 31, Cincinnati 28

Jake Brend: The trip to Arrowhead was a breaking point. In my head, it was similar to 2017 Texas, 2019 Notre Dame, and 2023 Ohio. The response to those low points is what has built this Cyclone program. So, how does this team respond? I think they find a way to bounce back with a win, but it’s not a comfortable win and certainly not a cover. Iowa State 34, Cincinnati 30.

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Utah at Colorado

Peterson: Colorado 45, Utah 10.

Hassel: Colorado 28, Utah 14.

Williams: Colorado 27, Utah 24.

Murphy: Colorado 31, Utah 21.

Downs: Colorado 31, Utah 21.

Van Winkle: Colorado 35, Utah 21

Brend: Colorado 27, Utah 13.

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Arizona State at Kansas State

Peterson: Kansas State 34, Arizona State 31.

Hassel: Kansas State 30, Arizona State 24.

Williams: Kansas State 31, Arizona State 17.

Murphy: Kansas State 35, Arizona State 28. 

Downs: Kansas State 24, Arizona State 17.

Van Winkle: Kansas State 27, Arizona State 20.

Brend: Kansas 31, Arizona State 16.

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Kansas at BYU

Peterson: Kansas 30, BYU 24.

Hassel: BYU 31, Kansas 30.

Williams: BYU 31, Kansas 30.

Murphy: BYU 34, Kansas 28.

Downs: BYU 30, Kansas 28.

Van Winkle: Kansas 34, BYU 21.

Brend: BYU 34, Kansas 27.

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Oregon at Wisconsin

Peterson: Oregon 38, Wisconsin 24.

Hassel: Oregon 41, Wisconsin 17.

Williams: Oregon 35, Wisconsin 17.

Murphy: Oregon 35, Wisconsin 17.

Downs: Oregon 52, Wisconsin 3.

Van Winkle: Oregon 35, Wisconsin 14.

Brend: Oregon 34, Wisconsin 14.

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Penn State at Purdue

Peterson: Penn State 38, Purdue 0.

Hassel: Penn State 49, Purdue 3.

Williams: Penn State 48, Purdue 10.

Murphy: Penn State 42, Purdue 17. 

Downs: Penn State 35, Purdue 13.

Van Winkle: Penn State 42, Purdue 10.

Brend: Penn State 30, Purdue 6.