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Randy Peterson
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February 06, 2025
Here’s something else Iowa State has going for it. Amid a three-game losing streak that has included longer stretches of bad play, than we saw during T.J. Otzelberger’s previous 127 games as the coach, there’s a Big 12 Big Picture positive.
All’s not lost. The conference is not as good as it’s past.
Make no mistake – this 16-team, nationally spread-out league is all right. It can be very all right, at least the top handful of teams, but as far as the league’s entirety? We’ve seen better.
That’s good news for an Iowa State team that’s not been the same since Milan Momcilovic underwent surgery to repair a broken bone in his hand. With him on the floor, the Cyclones were 13-1, including 4-0 in the Big 12. Without him, they’re 3-4 with an offense that’s lost its way -- its shooting touch, its ability to properly space the floor, and its propensity to play without making lackadaisical mistakes.
How badly do they need him back in the lineup? Very, considering Iowa State’s recent 3-point shooting misery, but there’s good news beyond his approaching return:
The next four games are against teams with a combined 12-32 conference record. That’s 5-6 TCU at 11 a.m., Saturday at Hilton Coliseum, followed by at UCF (4-7), and then home against Cincinnati (3-8) and Colorado (0-11).
That’s four games during which a currently struggling Iowa State team, can (should) regain the mojo it had while winning 17 of its first 19 games. That’s four games during which this team can begin returning to the goodness that resulted in a No. 2 ranking on meaningless media and coaches polls.
It’s four games Iowa State must win, before playing at first-place Houston on Feb. 22. Win those four, and the Cyclones are a respectable 11-4 in the Big 12 before heading to Kelvin Sampson’s house.
Don’t win the next four games – against teams that rank between 63 (UCF) and 105 (Colorado) in the NCAA’s significant NET ratings, and between 10th and last in the Big 12 standings.
“We know that adversity is part of playing in this conference, and the teams we play,” Otzelberger told reporters after Monday night’s game at Kansas.
It’s now about how his team handles that adversity.
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UNDER 16: Bill Self showed again how much a fan he is of Otzelberger.
The Kansas coach used the final words of his postgame press conference Monday night to remind Iowa State fans that stuff (like losing streaks) happens in big-time college athletics, and particularly in the Big 12.
“T.J.’s group -- the last week has been rough for them,” Self said. “They beat Arizona, if a guy doesn’t throw in a 70-foot shot. Then you have a hangover, probably (against Kansas State), and then you turn around and come to Allen Fieldhouse. It’s been rough, but everybody’s going through it in our league for the most part.
“They’re going to be fine. They’re still a team that can go to the Final Four.”
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UNDER 12: That won’t happen without Momcilovic.
He could return sometime before the late-February game at Houston, but how much rust will he have, after sitting out since mid-January?
Momcilovic worked out before Monday night’s game, which was a good thing. If the next four games go as they should (could?), that would give Otzelberger time to gradually work the 6-foot-8 floor-stretching mismatch back into game shape.
Considering Iowa State is shooting just 18-for-63 (28.6%) from 3-point range the last three games, even a game-rusty Momcilovic would be a welcomed addition. When healthy, the 6-foot-8 sniper is a 40% 3-point shooter. When healthy, defenses must respect that percentage. When healthy, opponents aren’t paint and pressuring the guards as aggressively as they are now.
“Our offense was probably among the top five in the country, and then Milan goes out,” Otzelberger said.
Top 5 to No. 19 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency is a drastic drop, I’d say.
UNDER 8: It’d be nice if ESPN’s College GameDay, which is at Hilton Coliseum on Saturday, could drive a few minutes down the Interstate, to do a piece on one of the country’s best college basketball stories (and clearly the state of Iowa’s best right now).
That’d be Drake, which is 60th on KenPom and ahead of 11 teams from the Big 12 and Big Ten. The 21-2 Bulldogs, in Ben McCollum’s first season as the coach, host Indiana State Saturday.
And oh yeah, they’re on a nine-game winning streak, too.
UNDER 4: Both Iowa State’s men and women are still in contention for top four seed double-byes in their respective Big 12 tournament. Nice winning streaks down the regular-season stretch would help, though.
(Randy Peterson can be reached at randypete4846@gmail.com or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close)