Randy Peterson
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September 02, 2024
Look, there’s no way Iowa State’s throwing the ball every play during Cy vs. Hawk at the end of a week that will be filled with trash-talking fans and secretive coaches. Even 70 percent of the time would be a stretch, during games that include the usual 68 or so offensive plays.
Matt Campbell’s going to do everything he can to get the running game going. We’ve seen it before, and we’ll see it again. Handoff, handoff, handoff and every so often, maybe something positive will pop. We’ve seen it work. We’ve seen it not. We’ll see it again in Cy-Hawk at 2:30 p.m., Saturday (CBS) at Kinnick Stadium.
Probably.
That was my thought at halftime of Saturday’s 21-3 Cyclones ho-hum victory against North Dakota, and it’s my thought heading into a highly anticipated Cy-Hawk game.
After eight-plus seasons during what’s been a wonderful Cyclones’ coaching career, we know that CMC is one of those run-first guys – even when it looks to be a no-brainer to abandon it in favor of the pass.
That’s cool – as long as standout receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins are involved, too. This is quarterback Rocco Becht’s team, you know. It will go as far as his talented right arm and talented receivers will take it, and that could be a ways. Especially on Saturday against what’s always one of the nation’s top defenses.
Iowa State Cyclones punt returner Jaylin Noel (13) runs with the ball against North Dakota during punt return in the first quarter in the season opening game at Jack Trice Stadium on Aug. 31, 2024, in Ames, Iowa. © Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK
Contrary to (sometimes my) popular demand, you need a few handoffs, also, to keep the defense guessing, and with Abu Sama, Iowa State has a David Montgomery-like breakaway threat each time the Southeast Polk superstar touches the ball. The sophomore had a 16-yard run on Saturday’s first rushing play that included hurdling a defender. He had a 13-yard rush in the third quarter on a run that became his final of the day. He suffered an injury, but I’m assuming he’ll be all right by Saturday.
Iowa State needs a healthy Sama to beat Iowa for the second time in a row at Kinnick – and just the second time since Campbell became the coach. The Cyclones need this sort of changeup -- to the Becht four-seam heater. Iowa State also needs linebacker Caleb Bacon to heal quickly. He was hurt in the first quarter and didn’t play the remainder of the North Dakota game. Will he play at Iowa? That looked to be a longshot Saturday afternoon.
This isn’t the Hawkeyes’ offense of old. This one hung 40 on an FCS Illinois State outfit including 34 in the second half. Jon Heacock’s defense needs all hands-on-turf in this game – and especially on third down, when North Dakota converted 11 of 20 times. That’s another glaring takeaway from a game that included just 48 Cyclones plays, the fourth fewest during the 102 Iowa State games Campbell has coached.
That’s my thought about a game that went precisely as many Cyclones fans predicted. As always, there’s probably more over-reaction than reality, but a win’s a win. And with Cy-Hawk up next – that’s what is important.
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OVER REACTION
** Let’s start with the running game: 22 rushes for just 86 yards is unacceptable, yes, but it’s a product of Iowa State’s offense being sidelined for all but 22 of the game’s 60 minutes. North Dakota’s 23-play, 88-yard drive in 12 minutes of the second quarter, for instance, included six successful third-down conversions. Five times on those plays, the Fighting Hawks did it with pass completions. You better believe Iowa coaches noted that, now that the Hawkeyes look to have a healthy major college-level quarterback.
** Targeting a tight end just twice: Head-scratching. Even with standout Ben Brahmer a bit banged up, you’d think Becht would throw toward someone among what we believe to be a talented position group. Alas, let’s wait to see if this continues. One game is not a trend. With Noel and Higgins literally catching everything thrown their way, the tight end wasn’t exactly needed last Saturday. Throw as many receiving variables as possible. Keep Iowa’s defense guessing.
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REALITY
** There’s something amiss with the linebackers: There’s a reason defensive backs had most of Iowa State tackles Saturday. Bacon was out. Anticipated starter Will McLaughlin didn’t play. Last season starter Jack Sadowsky didn’t start. Thus, Saturday’s linebacker starters had a grand total of just two career starts. This unit must improve more than any other position group, before Game No. 2. That’s reality.
** ISU knows its offensive strength: This isn’t a team that will go a month or so before realizing its niche. Saturday’s first drive showed that. The Cyclones’ first play of the season was a 54-yard completion to Noel. The second play was a 21-yard touchdown pass to Higgins. Two plays, 75 passing yards and a touchdown in the game’s first 38 seconds.
“That’s coach Mouse for you,” Becht told reporters about new OC Taylor Mouser. “That’s what he brings to the table. He’s aggressive. He’s unique. We’re going to keep doing that all season.”
Yes, passing will work, and it looks like there’s enough proven receivers that Becht can, and will confidently throw deep. That, too, is reality, and finally, so is this:
Place-kicker Kyle Konrardy’s first collegiate field-goal attempt could happen on Saturday at Cy-Hawk. And what if his first collegiate attempt results in the former Dubuque Senior redshirt freshman’s first collegiate success coming against a team that’s favored by just 2 ½ points?
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AND THEN THERE’S THIS . . .
A glaring statistic you’ll see and hear this week is that Campbell is 1-6 in Cy-Hawk, and yes, that’s reality. So is this: Four of those games were decided by a touchdown or less. Three of those were determined by three points or fewer.
Special teams, Turnovers. That’s what will decide Saturday’s game.
(Randy Peterson can be reached at randypete4846@gmail.com or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close)