Sep 28, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht (3) attempts a pass during the third quarter against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
And now for Iowa State Football Chapter II. Molding Success is over. Now, let’s move ahead to Plussing Your Plusses. No peeking to the final chapter that’s titled: What Lies Beyond.
Baylor on Saturday, followed by games at West Virginia, then home against UCF and Texas Tech. Four more winnable opportunities. Four in which Matt Campbell’s team likely will be favored.
Four that can put this team at 8-0 and solidly in everyone’s College Football Playoffs bracket.
Who saw this coming, nine seasons ago when Campbell and his staff inherited a program that didn’t even have a tight end on scholarship?
“We’re not the five-star football factory,” Campbell said during a 2020 one-on-one in his office. “For us, everything has to be aligned if we’re going to be that team that has a chance to win a conference championship.
“That alignment is going to be critical to the success of an Iowa State football team playing at a championship level in November and December, when you need to be.”
Campbell’s team is aligned. Quality depth is at a program-best high – and if you don’t believe it, just look at the linebacker position, where rookies have successfully replaced injured rookies.
Exhibit B: The running back room is a deep and all-around talented as it’s been – with Abu Sama, Carson Hansen and Jaylon Jackson.
“Our team hasn’t skipped a beat when any of those three guys have been in the football game,” Campbell told reporters Tuesday. “There’s great competition.”
The Cyclones are a two-touchdown favorite in WhiteOut Saturday’s 6:30 p.m., game against 2-3 Baylor at Jack Trice Stadium. They’re second nationally against the pass, and fourth in stopping the rush. The offense’s big-play capability has been on display multiple times – most recently Sama’s 77-yard touchdown run against Houston.
Whether this is the championship level Campbell mentioned – I don’t know, but it’s at least close. It’s good enough to be unbeaten, but staying that way heading into the final two regular-season games – at Utah and at home against Kansas State?
“Ultimately, our sport is extremely humbling,” Campbell said. “As soon as you think you’ve figured it out, you’re going to get humbled really fast. There’s too many good teams.”
Here’s how this second chapter could (should?) go:
** Saturday night at home against Baylor: Fast Iowa State start (for a change) and fast finish.
** At West Virginia: The Cyclones have already proven they can win in Iowa City, so another tough road crowd shouldn’t be a major problem.
** Home against UCF: This will be the best opponent to play at Jack Trice Stadium since last season. Overall, Kansas State will be the best Cyclones home foe.
** Home against Texas Tech: The Red Raiders haven’t shown much yet.
Handle those four as expected, and that’s 8-0 heading into the much tougher final chapter – also known as the final third of the season.
**
The Red Zone
FIRST DOWN: I see Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy is speaking his mind again – and that’s a good thing. When asked about the out-of-control state of major college football, he told reporters: “College football needs a commissioner. And if it’s one of the four guys, now, if it’s the SEC commissioner, I don’t care. We need a commissioner . . . . Coach (Mack) Brown in North Carolina when he retires . . . (Nick) Saban . . . that’s your football commissioner."
SECOND DOWN: If Big Ten and SEC form a scheduling partnership, does that mean Cy-Hawk could be replaced with Iowa-Alabama or Hawkeyes against Georgia during the non-conference season? Probably not, but losing a game that’s right up there in our state with the Iowa State Fair and RAGBRAI always comes to mind when during conference shakeup conversations.
THIRD DOWN: The Big 12’s biggest disappointment so far? Well, Kansas has lost four in a row after a season-opening win against Lindenwood. “We’re still moving forward in the areas that we believe in and got us to this point,” coach Lance Leipold told reporters.
FOURTH DOWN: Iowa State’s Jayden Higgins has a touchdown reception in a school-record six-consecutive games, dating to last season. That’s the nation's longest active streak. That’s impressive.
6:30 p.m., FOX, Jack Trice Stadium
Randy Peterson:Iowa State cannot afford to lose against a team whose coach, Dave Aranda, is on the hottest of all hot seats. This would be a nice victory heading into what awaits next – the game at West Virginia. Iowa State 34, Baylor 17.
Chris Hassel: The unpredictability of the Big 12 scares me. Every week there’s a stunning result. I think this one is closer than the number, but the Cyclones win. Iowa State 24, Baylor 14.
Keith Murphy: Cyclones keep Baylor reeling with white out conditions on a hot night in Ames. ISU improves to 5-0 for the first time since we wondered, Who shot JR. Iowa State 24, Baylor 13.
Matt Van Winkle: -This is one of the biggest games in Jack Trice Stadium history and should be an incredible atmosphere. Iowa State hasn't shown they can put together a full game offensively this season. Baylor is better than its record and I think this one is tight throughout. But the Cyclone defense is legit. Rocco has a big second half and puts this one away in the 4th quarter. Iowa State 27, Baylor 17.
Chris Williams: Iowa State should win this game by double digits. But as Dave Aranda's seat is smoldering, Baylor is two possessions away from being 2-0 in Big 12 play with impressive wins over Colorado and BYU. Talent wise, Iowa State is better than Baylor but this isn't a black and white conversation. If the Cyclones play like they are capable, they win comfortably. I think the Bears will show up and this will end somewhere in the middle. Iowa State 30, Baylor 21
Andrew Downs: The Cyclones will push Aranda closer to the brink, in a blowout win. Iowa State 28, Baylor 10.
Jake Brend: To overcome a 21-point deficit just to come up short in the end takes a lot out of the team, especially after the way they lost in Boulder. Baylor has talent, but I don’t know if they will be able to rally around Dave Aranda and have enough energy to hang with Iowa State under the lights in Ames. Iowa State 37, Baylor 20.
**
2:30 p.m., CBS, Ohio Stadium
Randy Peterson:This is the last time Iowa won’t be favored during the regular season. There’s nothing that the Hawkeyes do better than the Buckeyes – and that’s not a slam on Iowa. OHIO STATE 40, IOWA 10.
Chris Hassel: Iowa will have to be more balanced on offense if they’re going to stay in it. But I don’t have that kind of faith in McNamara. Ohio State pulls away. Ohio State 31, Iowa 13.
Keith Murphy: Iowa will score. More than once even. But Ohio State has too much talent for a Hawkeye upset this year. Ohio State 31, Iowa 10.
Matt Van Winkle: -Before the season I predicted this game would come down to the final possession. I truly think this game will be closer than most think. Iowa's defense will give Will Howard trouble and keep this thing low scoring. Ohio State has given up the 3rd fewest rushing yards in college football, but Kaleb Johnson will have something to say about that. Ohio State 24, Iowa 20.
Chris Williams: Iowa covering the three touchdown spread is the smart play here. I'm not crazy about Ohio State quarterback Will Howard. I don't know ... Ohio State is really freaking good and a win at Minnesota hasn't totally changed my opinion of the Hawkeyes. Ohio State 28, Iowa 7
Andrew Downs:Iowa will do what it hasn’t for several years; keep it close against an elite opponent. Ohio State 31, Iowa 20.
Jake Brend: Ohio State has yet to be tested and that should play in Iowa’s favor early. But there’s a difference between Ryan Day and PJ Fleck. Day will force Cade McNamara to beat them and he won’t, which will neutralize Kaleb Johnson just enough in the process. Iowa fans walk away feeling more competitive against the big dogs, but are never a threat to win the game. Ohio State 31, Iowa 13.
**
WEST VIRGINIA at OKLAHOMA STATE
Randy Peterson: Oklahoma State 27, West Virginia 20.
Chris Hassel:Oklahoma State 21, West Virginia 18.
Keith Murphy:Oklahoma State 35, West Virginia 31.
Matt Van Winkle:Oklahoma State 28, West Virginia 24.
Chris Williams: West Virginia 27, Oklahoma State 14.
Andrew Downs:West Virginia 35, Oklahoma State 31.
Jake Brend:West Virginia 30, Oklahoma State 20.
**
KANSAS at ARIZONA STATE
Randy Peterson: Arizona State 24, Kansas 20.
Chris Hassel:Kansas 21, Kansas State 20.
Keith Murphy:Arizona State 28, Kansas 24.
Matt Van Winkle:Arizona State 35, Kansas 20.
Chris Williams: Arizona State 24, Kansas 21
Andrew Downs:Arizona State 37, Kansas 21.
Jake Brend: Arizona State 24, Kansas 16.
**
TEXAS TECH at ARIZONA
Randy Peterson: Arizona 41, Texas Tech 31.
Chris Hassel:Arizona 28, Texas Tech 24.
Keith Murphy:Arizona 35, Texas Tech 28.
Matt Van Winkle:Arizona 45, Texas Tech 42.
Chris Williams: Arizona 41, Texas Tech 21
Andrew Downs: Arizona 38, Texas Tech 30.
Jake Brend:Arizona 35, Texas Tech 30.
**
RUTGERS at NEBRASKA
Randy Peterson: Nebraska 27, Rutgers 13.
Chris Hassel:Nebraska 27, Rutgers 24.
Keith Murphy:Nebraska 27, Rutgers 20.
Matt Van Winkle:Nebraska 34, Rutgers 28.
Chris Williams: Nebraska 21, Rutgers 17
Andrew Downs:Nebraska 24, Rutgers 14.
Jake Brend:Nebraska 27, Rutgers 17.
**
UCLA at PENN STATE
Randy Peterson: Penn State 34, UCLA 3.
Chris Hassel:Penn State 41, UCLA 7.
Keith Murphy:Penn State 38, UCLA 10.
Matt Van Winkle:Penn State 45, UCLA 21.
Chris Williams: Penn State 41, UCLA 13
Andrew Downs:Penn State 31, UCLA 9.
Jake Brend:Penn State 41, UCLA 10.
(Randy Peterson can be reached at randypete4846@gmail.com or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close)